Takaitaccen Bayani Kan Kasuwar Yau da Kullum 2026.2.4

A cewar sabbin bayanai na kasuwa, sauyin farashin jan ƙarfe na yanzu galibi yana faruwa ne sakamakon manyan abubuwan da ke tafe kamar haka:

1. Canje-canje a cikin tsammanin manufofin kuɗi na Amurka

Nadin da Trump ya yi wa Walsh a matsayin shugaban Fed: Yana haifar da tsammanin kasuwa, bayanan hauhawar farashin PPI na Amurka sun tashi ba zato ba tsammani, dala ta farfaɗo cikin sauri kuma tana da mummunan tasiri ga farashin jan ƙarfe.

2 Motsi nama'aunin dala

Rashin ƙarfin dala ya samar da goyon baya ga farashin jan ƙarfe, amma ma'aunin dala ya nuna alamun farfadowa kwanan nan. Barazanar Trump na ƙara ƙimar harajin Koriya ta Kudu daga kashi 15% zuwa 25%, tare da yuwuwar rufewar gwamnatin Amurka da kashi 80%, ya ƙara rashin tabbas na manufofin Amurka tare da raunana dala.

3 Hadarin yanayin ƙasa

Rashin tabbas da matakan siyasa na Amurka suka haifar a Iran da Venezuela, da kuma yajin aikin da Chile ta yi wanda ya toshe hanyoyin shiga ma'adinan tagulla guda biyu, yana da tasiri kai tsaye ga samar da tagulla. Waɗannan abubuwan da suka shafi siyasa sun ƙara zurfafa darajar kasuwa game da haɗarin samar da tagulla.

4. Tasirin manufofin ciniki

Damuwar harajin Amurka na ci gaba da yin mummunan tasiri ga farashin tagulla. Tasirin manufar Amurka na sanya harajin kashi 10% kan kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su daga China a shekarar 2025 ya ci gaba da wanzuwa, kuma damuwar kasuwa game da barazanar yakin cinikayya na karuwa lokaci zuwa lokaci.

5. Theyanayin tattalin arzikin duniya

Yanayin kuɗi na duniya yana tafiya cikin wani yanayi mai matuƙar dacewa. A wannan yanayin, manyan kasuwannin hannayen jari na duniya sun ƙaru gaba ɗaya, kuma kasuwannin kayayyaki ma sun ga ƙaruwar jama'a. Amma tare da PMI na masana'antu da ke komawa kusan kashi 50% na hauhawar farashi, ba a tsammanin ECB za ta kawar da hauhawar farashin riba a shekarar 2026 ba.

6. Haɗin kasuwar karafa masu daraja

Halayen kuɗi na jan ƙarfe sun sake ƙaruwa kwanan nan, kuma ƙarfe masu daraja suna haifar da tsangwama mai yawa ga farashin jan ƙarfe. Sakamakon raguwar farashin zinare da azurfa cikin sauri, farashin jan ƙarfe yana raguwa cikin sauri.

A halin yanzu jan ƙarfe yana cikin wani mataki inda manyan abubuwan da suka shafi tattalin arziki da kuma tushen tattalin arziki suka kasance masu ƙarfi da kuma masu rauni, kuma ra'ayin kasuwa yana canzawa. Ana ba da shawarar a kula da alkiblar manufofin Babban Bankin Tarayya, motsin ma'aunin dala na Amurka, da canje-canje a cikin haɗarin siyasa.

Bisa ga sabbin bayanai na kasuwa, ina yin wannan bincike da hasashen farashin jan ƙarfe na watanni uku masu zuwa:

Yanayin kasuwar yanzu na farashin jan ƙarfe

A cewar bayanan SMM, matsakaicin farashin jan ƙarfe mai ƙarfin lantarki na 1# a ranar 3 ga Fabrairu, 2026 ya kasance yuan 101,320 a kowace tan, koma baya daga mafi girman Janairu na yuan 104,410 a kowace tan. A tarihi, farashin jan ƙarfe ya nuna ci gaba mai kyau tsakanin Nuwamba 2025 da Janairu 2026, wanda ya tashi daga yuan 86,840 a kowace tan zuwa yuan 104,410 a kowace tan.

Hasashen watanni uku masu zuwa:

ɗayaKwata na Farko (Fabrairu - Maris): Lokacin daidaitawa mai canzawa

Farashin da ake tsammani: yuan 98,000-103,000/ton

Farashin jan ƙarfe na yanzu yana cikin babban matakin gyara, galibi yana shafar waɗannan abubuwan:

1) Rashin tabbas kan manufofin Macro: Nadin da Trump ya yi wa Walsh a matsayin shugaban Fed ya tayar da tsammanin masu zuba jari, kuma koma-baya a cikin ma'aunin dala ya sanya matsin lamba kan farashin jan ƙarfe

A. Matsi a ɓangaren buƙata: Yawan aiki na kebul na tagulla ya ragu zuwa kashi 68.89% a watan Disamba, hauhawar farashin tagulla ya hana fitar da buƙatar da ke ƙasa

B. Bambanci a tsarin kaya: Kayayyakin Amurka na ci gaba da karuwa, yayin da kaya a yankunan da ba na Amurka ba ke da ƙarfi sosai

biyuKwata na biyu na farko (Afrilu): Lokacin daidaitawa da murmurewa

Farashin da ake tsammani: yuan 102,000-108,000/ton

Yayin da waɗannan abubuwa masu kyau ke bayyana a hankali:

1) Tallafin kayan masarufi: Hukumar Tagulla ta Ƙasa ta Chile ta ɗaga hasashen farashin tagulla na 2026 zuwa $4.95 kowace fam (kimanin $10,900 kowace tan)

2) Haɗarin siyasa a fannin ƙasa: Yajin aiki a Chile ya toshe hanyoyin shiga ma'adanai biyu na tagulla, wanda hakan ke da tasiri kai tsaye ga samar da tagulla

3) Bukatar sauyin makamashi: Muhimman rawar da jan ƙarfe ke takawa a cibiyoyin bayanai na AI da kuma sauyin makamashi mai tsabta yana ci gaba da fitowa fili

Binciken manyan abubuwan da ke tasiri:

ɗayaAbubuwan da ke haifar da tashin hankali

1. Tsarin samar da kayayyaki: Goldman Sachs ya ɗaga hasashen farashin jan ƙarfe na rabin farko na 2026 zuwa dala 12,750 a kowace tan, yana mai nuni da ƙarancin kuɗin fito saboda ƙarancin kayan da ake samarwa a wajen Amurka.

2. Tsammanin raguwar dala: Duk da koma-baya na ɗan gajeren lokaci, yanayin raguwar dala na dogon lokaci har yanzu yana goyon bayan farashin jan ƙarfe.

3. Rage yawan kaya sau biyu: Rasidin da aka rubuta na jan ƙarfe na LME ya koma kashi 37%, ƙarin raguwa na iya faruwa idan aka cire duk kaya.

biyuAbubuwan da ke haifar da damuwa

1. Yawan farashi yana rage buƙata: Ci gaba da hauhawar farashin tagulla ya jawo raguwar buƙata, kuma kamfanoni suna ƙara yin taka tsantsan wajen siyayyarsu.

2. Tsaurara manufofin manyan ƙasashe: Tsammanin Fed da rashin tabbas game da manufofin kasuwanci

3. Asusun hasashe yana karɓar riba: Wasu masu zuba jari sun zaɓi su yi aiki bayan farashin jan ƙarfe ya yi tsada

Gargaɗin Hadari:

Farashin jan ƙarfe zai fuskanci waɗannan haɗurra a cikin watanni uku masu zuwa:

- Daidai lokacin da kuma ƙarfin tsarin harajin Amurka

- Sauyin manufofin kuɗi yana canzawa a manyan tattalin arzikin duniya

- Tasirin rikice-rikicen siyasa a fannin tattalin arziki kan hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki

Hukuncin gabaɗaya: Farashin tagulla zai nuna yanayin faɗuwa da farko sannan ya tashi a cikin watanni uku masu zuwa, tare da ƙarancin sararin ja da baya na ɗan gajeren lokaci, kuma har yanzu yana da tushen haɓakawa wanda tushen wadata da buƙata ke tallafawa a matsakaici da dogon lokaci. Ana ba masu zuba jari shawara su kula da canje-canje a cikin kaya, yanayin manufofin babban farashi da kuma dawo da buƙatun da ke ƙasa.